<\/p>\n
Robust seismic fragility curves for concrete gravity dams incorporating
\naleatory, epistemic, and fuzzy uncertainties
\nThulfiqar S. Hussein a,b, Mariyana Aida Ab Kadir b,c, Saif Alzabeebee a,*,
\nSuraparb Keawsawasvong d, M.Z. Ramli b,c, Thulfikar Razzak Al-Husseini e
\na Department of Roads and Transport Engineering, University of Al-Qadisiyah, Al Diwaniyah 58002, Iraq
\nb Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
\nc Institute of Noise and Vibration, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 54100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
\nd Research Unit in Sciences and Innovative Technologies for Civil Engineering Infrastructures, Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering,
\nThammasat University, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
\ne Department of Civil Engineering, University of Al-Qadisiyah, Al Diwaniyah 58002, Iraq
\nA R T I C L E I N F O
\nKeywords:
\nSeismic fragility
\nConcrete gravity dams
\nAleatory uncertainty
\nEpistemic uncertainty
\nFuzzy uncertainty
\nFinite Element Modeling
\nA B S T R A C T
\nConcrete gravity dams are critical infrastructure assets, and their failure in seismically active regions poses
\nsignificant risks. The primary problem addressed in this research is the need for a reliable assessment of the
\nseismic fragility of these dams to ensure safety in such areas. The research aims to develop a comprehensive
\nmethodology for seismic fragility analysis that accounts for various uncertainties affecting dam performance,
\nincluding uncertainties in material properties and seismic characteristics and the fuzziness of damage state
\nthresholds through the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The methodology involves a three-stage approach:
\nfirst, a finite element model is created using Abaqus software, incorporating uncertainties in material properties
\nand earthquake characteristics using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method (LHS). Second, incremental dynamic
\nanalysis (IDA) defines damage states based on concrete cracking severity and overall stability, utilizing four
\nperformance categories of limit states (minor, moderate, extensive, and heavy). Finally, a mathematical model is
\nintroduced to characterize the ambiguity in damage state thresholds, recognizing the gradual nature of damage
\nevolution. The primary findings demonstrate that fuzziness substantially influences the probability of exceedance
\nacross all damage states, with varying effects on different damage indices because of their differing frequency
\ndistributions. This research enhances the reliability and accuracy of seismic fragility assessments, contributing to
\nmore robust design guidelines and effective risk mitigation strategies for concrete gravity dams.<\/p>\n